On Tuesday, citizens across the country took to the polls to vote in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election, with the Associated Press reporting Wednesday that former President Donald Trump won the race.
Before the race results were in, though, hotel industry leaders anticipated the November event would impact travel, altering the fourth-quarter earnings results of several major hotel companies, including Marriott International, Hilton and Choice Hotels.
In third-quarter earnings calls in the days and weeks leading up to election day, hotel CEOs shared their outlooks on how this year’s presidential election cycle will impact their companies’ financial results in the final months of 2024. Some anticipate a hit to revenues, others don’t expect significant impacts, and one hotel company is pacing up on the quarter.
A general consensus
Marriott International — which reported global RevPAR growth of 3% in the third quarter of 2024 — anticipates that its Q4 earnings results will be generally in line with those for the third quarter, with some offset by November’s presidential election, CEO Anthony Capuano said during a Nov. 4 call with analysts.
In Q3, group was “once again the top performing customer segment” for Marriott, with group RevPAR rising 10% year over year in the quarter driven by “robust increases in both room nights and ADR,” Capuano said. But the election is slated to have a negative impact on that growth in Q4.
“At the end of September, global group revenues were pacing roughly flat for the fourth quarter, primarily due to negative impact from the election in the U.S.,” Capuano said.
Hilton CEO Christopher Nassetta echoed similar sentiments during Hilton’s Q3 call on Oct. 23.
“In the fourth quarter, we expect RevPAR growth largely in line with [the] third quarter, driven by strong group bookings, continued business transient recovery and favorable calendar shifts, partially offset by the election and ongoing labor disputes in the U.S.,” Nassetta said. Hilton reported lower-than-expected year-over-year RevPAR growth of 1.4% in Q3.
Hyatt Hotels also saw strong group rooms revenue growth in the third quarter. Group pace for its U.S. full-service managed properties is up more than 5% in the fourth quarter — but that number excludes the forecasted impact from the U.S. election, CEO Mark Hoplamazian said during the company’s Oct. 31 call. Group pace “is otherwise flat when accounting for [the Jewish holidays in October] and election week,” he said.
For Marriott, the election impact on U.S. and Canada RevPAR is forecasted to be around negative 300 basis points in November and negative 100 basis points for the quarter, “double that of past election cycles,” according to Marriott CFO Leeny Oberg.
She said that for the first two weeks of November, Marriott has “meaningfully lower transient and group room nights on the books.”
The other side of the ticket
Wyndham Hotels & Resorts CFO Michele Allen noted that the presidential election “often reduces not just group and conference business, but overall corporate travel.” But Wyndham, she noted during the company’s Oct. 24 call, will not likely feel a pinch from that travel shift since its typical business traveler “is wearing hard hats and work boots.”
Wyndham has made an increased effort over the last year to cater to construction workers, developing extended stay hotels in markets seeing increased infrastructure spending — the result of the Biden Administration’s $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill that passed in 2021.
The presidential election “typically would not have an impact on our business,” Allen said, adding, “now, this is not a typical election, so it still remains to be seen.”
Choice Hotels International, meanwhile, is pacing ahead for November, according to CEO Patrick Pacious.
“When we look at what we're seeing on the books for November, it is higher than it was at this point last year, which is giving us more confidence that what we saw trend-wise in October will continue into the month of November as well,” Pacious said during Choice’s Nov. 4 call, noting that at the macro-level, consumer confidence is high.
Choice is seeing a pickup on the books in markets like Wisconsin and Minnesota, specifically, Pacious said Monday.
“Hopefully, the election will be over [on Tuesday]. But when these elections drag on, that does drive a tailwind business as well,” Pacious added.
Looking forward to 2025
Regardless of the election’s results, the group segment is pacing well for 2025, several leaders shared.
According to Hoplamazian, Hyatt’s group pace in 2025 is up approximately 6% compared to 2024, with average rate accounting for over half of that increase.
“Business transient customers continue to deliver the largest year-over-year growth, with revenue up approximately 16% [in Q3],” Hoplamazian said. “In the United States, revenue increased at a similar growth rate and major urban markets continue to benefit from the recovery of business travel.”
Hilton’s Nassetta said he “feels pretty good” about 2025, noting the U.S. economy “remains strong, resilient, showing positive growth,” and “next year will be more of that.” He predicted that business transient demand will likely surpass prior 2019 peaks in 2025.
Beyond corporate purposes, people are also increasingly traveling for sporting events, Pacious noted.
“The realignment of college football is driving a significant amount of fan bases traveling to the markets they normally had not travel[ed to] before,” Pacious said.
